War, Peace, and the Evolution of Social Complexity

A general research direction currently comprised of three specific projects
One of the principal threats to peace today originates from failed or failing states: since the end of the Cold War such internal conflicts have claimed far more victims than old-fashioned wars between established states. In the last two decades there has been a dramatic increase in the frequency of UN peacekeeping missions and U.S.-led multinational military interventions, while the roster of failed states has also increased. Increasingly, the goals of both peacekeepers and development programs have morphed into what is now called nation-building.

Yet the track record of nation-building is not particularly impressive. Why is it that what works in some countries fails in others? We argue that a major part of the problem is lack of a theoretical framework that could guide concrete actions. Here is where we believe that evolutionary science can be of tremendous use.

This research program will investigate the nature and evolution of war and its converse, large-scale cooperation. The focus on cooperation is important because peace is not simply an absence of war; lasting peace can be achieved only on the basis of humans cooperating with each other. The main goal of this research is to test and refine theories of how human ultrasociality (ability to cooperate in huge groups of millions and more) evolved and what role warfare played in this process. What are the social forces that hold together large and complex human societies, and why do they sometimes fail? How did social complexity evolve?

As a more robust theory of state formation (or, in more general terms, of organizational forms of large-scale social integration) is developed and tested with cross-cultural data, we will obtain a much better toolkit for answering such questions as, how do we fix failed states? How can we end civil wars and evolve political structures for nonviolent methods of resolving conflicts? How can we promote integration at the global level and stop interstate wars?

Work will proceed simultaneously along three interrelated fronts.

Refining theoretical approaches

Although much theoretical attention has been paid to the issue of evolution of human sociality (with a specific focus on altruism and cooperation), the overwhelming part of this effort has been devoted to the understanding of small-scale societies. Yet the set of proximate mechanisms explaining the evolution of complex societies is very different from those relevant to hunter-gatherer groups. These novel mechanisms include hierarchical chains of command that provide vertical integration, the use of religious markers for horizontal integration of ethnically diverse populations, the rise of urbanism, states, literacy, monumental architecture, etc. Furthermore, the few theoreticians who do work on these questions are spread thinly across multiple disciplines (evolution, anthropology, political science, economics).

As the first step in addressing this theoretical gap, we will convene an investigtive workshop at NIMBioS in the winter of 2012. This conference will bring together modelers and empirical social scientists working on the evolution of social complexity.

Learn more about the investigative workshop

Constructing a historical database

Developing a theory of social evolution is only the first step; we also need data to empirically test models. Accordingly, the second objective under this research initiative is to create a database for the cultural evolution of human ultrasociality. This database will explicitly adopt the methods of phylogenetic analysis developed for the study of genetic evolution. In other words, we propose to treat the historical record in the same way biological evolutionists use the paleontological record. The database will bring together, in a systematic form, what is currently known about the sociopolitical organization of complex human societies. It will be used (by us and many others) in analyses to determine how characteristics of large-scale organization vary with culture, institutions, world region and historical period, and what are the universal features that all complex societies share. It will also enable us to test a variety of theories about the selective forces that shaped the cultural evolution of large-scale societies.

The initial stage of database development has been funded by a subcontract from the Oxford University, which received a large grant from the Economic and Social Research Council (UK). The initial geographic focus will be on areas affected by the Axial Age developments, and the primary emphasis will be on coding social complexity, warfare, and a variety of proxies for ritual life and religion. Efforts are underway to secure research funds that will allow us to expand the geographic scope of the database and to code other types of cultural variables.

Learn more about the social evolution database

Initiating a dialogue between scientists and policy makers

Although we are still in the beginning stages of the War, Peace, and the Evolution of Complex Societies initiative, certain broad empirical patterns and theoretical insights are already beginning to emerge. We believe that the time is ripe to make connections between this basic science initiative and policy-oriented research. We expect that both will benefit. Policy formulation will become more effective by employing new insights on human nature and the understanding of the dynamics and functioning of human communities. At the same time, problems encountered in policy implementation will suggest questions that can be pursued by future research. Plans are underway for a workshop that will bring together a very diverse group of researchers and policy professionals. This workshop will be held at Stanford University in December of 2011.

Learn more about the Stanford conference.