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Peter Turchin's Reprints and Preprints


This is not a complete collection of my publications (for the complete list, see my CV). The focus is on my social science publications, with some of my favorite ecology papers thrown in.


Articles in Nature, Science, or PNAS:

Turchin P, Scheidel W. 2009. Coin Hoards Speak of Population Declines in Ancient Rome. PNAS 106: 17276-17279. PDF

Turchin P. 2008. Arise 'cliodynamics'. Nature 454:34-35. PDF

Turchin, P. 2008. Building nations after conflict (a book review). Nature 453:986-987. PDF

Burtsev M, Turchin P. 2006. Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles. Nature 440: 1041-4. PDF

Turchin P. 2003. Evolution in population dynamics. Nature 424: 257-258. PDF

Ellner SP, McCauley E, Kendall BE, Briggs CJ, Hosseini PR, Wood SN, Janssen A, Sabelis MW, Turchin P, Nisbet RM, Murdoch WW. 2001. Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community. Nature 412: 538-543. PDF

Turchin P, Oksanen L, Ekerholm P, Oksanen T, Henttonen H. 2000. Are lemmings prey or predators? Nature 405: 562-565. PDF

Turchin P, Taylor AD, Reeve JD. 1999. Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test. Science 285: 1068-1071. PDF


Articles in other peer-reviewed journals

Turchin P. 2011. Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach. Structure and Dynamics 4(3(1)):1-37. Article PDF

Turchin P, Gavrilets S. 2009. Evolution of Complex Hierarchical Societies. Social Evolution and History 8(2): in press. PDF

Turchin P. 2009. A theory for formation of large states. Journal of Global History 4:191-217. PDF

Turchin, P. 2009. Long-term population cycles in human societies. In R. S. Ostfeld and W. H. Schlesinger, editors. The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology 2009. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. in press. PDF

Turchin P, Adams JM, Hall TD. 2006. East-West Orientation of Historical Empires and Modern States. Journal of World-Systems Research 12:219-229. PDF

Turchin P, Korotayev A. 2006. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: a Reconsideration. Social Evolution and History 5(2): 121-158. PDF

Turchin P. 2005. Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States. Structure and Dynamics 1(1): Article 3. PDF

Turchin P. 2005. A Primer on Statistical Analysis of Dynamical Systems in Historical Social Sciences (with a Particular Emphasis on Secular Cycles). Structure and Dynamics 1(1): Article 4. PDF

Turchin P. 2005. Response to Oscillations in Population Sizes - From Ecology to History. Structure and Dynamics 1(1): Article 11. PDF

Turchin P, Hall TD. 2003. Spatial synchrony among and within world-systems: insights from theoretical ecology. Journal of World Systems Research 9: 37-64. PDF

Turchin P. 2001. Does population ecology have general laws? Oikos 94: 17-26. PDF

Turchin P, Ellner SP. 2000. Living on the edge of chaos: population dynamics of Fennoscandian voles. Ecology 81: 3099-3116. PDF

Turchin P, Hanski I. 1997. An empirically-based model for the latitudinal gradient in vole population dynamics. American Naturalist 149: 842–874. PDF

Turchin P. 1996. Fractal analyses of animal movement: a critique. Ecology 77: 2086-2090. PDF

Ellner S, Turchin P. 1995. Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time series analysis. American Naturalist 145: 343-375. PDF

Turchin P, Taylor AD. 1992. Complex dynamics in ecological time-series. Ecology 73: 289-305. PDF


Book Chapters

Turchin P. 2008. Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system. Pp. 163-191 in George Modelski, Tessaleno Devezas, William R. Thompson (eds). Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change. Routledge, NY. PDF of the proofs

Turchin PV. 2007. General empirical patterns in dynamics, cliodynamics, and demographic-structural theory. Pp. 248-251 in Turchin PV, Grinin LE, Malkov SYu, Korotayev AV (editors). 2007. History and Mathematics: Conceptual Landscape and Research Directions (in Russian). URSS, Moscow. preprint PDF

Turchin PV. 2007. Perspective of mathematical history. Pp. 8-18 in Turchin PV, Grinin LE, Malkov SYu, Korotayev AV (editors). 2007. History and Mathematics: Conceptual Landscape and Research Directions (in Russian). URSS, Moscow. preprint PDF

Hall TD, Turchin P. 2007. Lessons from population ecology for world-systems analyses of long-distance synchrony. Pp. 74-90 in Hornborg A. Crumley C (eds). The World System and the Earth System:Global socioenvironmental change and sustainability since the Neolithic . Left Coast Press, Walnut Creek, CA. PDF

Chase-Dunn C, Hall TD, Turchin P. 2007. World-systems in the biogeosphere: urbanization, state formation and climate change since the Iron Age Pp. 132-148 in Hornborg A. Crumley C (eds). The World System and the Earth System: Global socioenvironmental change and sustainability since the Neolithic . Left Coast Press, Walnut Creek, CA. PDF

Turchin P, Korotayev A, Grinin L. 2006. Why do we need models of historical dynamics. Pp. 4-8 in: Turchin P, Grinin, L, Korotayev, A, de Munck VC (editors) History and Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. URSS, Moscow. PDF

Turchin P. 2006. Scientific prediction in historical sociology: Ibn Khaldun meets Al Saud. Pp. 9-38 in: Turchin P, Grinin, L, Korotayev, A, de Munck VC (editors) History and Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. URSS, Moscow. preprint PDF