Peter Turchin's Web Page

Peter Turchin

Professor (Ph.D., Duke University)
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Department of Mathematics (adjunct)
University of Connecticut
75 N. Eagleville Road, U-43, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA
Tel: (860) 486-3603; Fax: (860) 486-6364
E-Mail: Peter.Turchin@UConn.edu

Measuring spatial fluxes of

swarming bark beetles in the

wilds of Louisiana

 

"Highly cited researcher" ISIHighlyCited.com

 

Current areas of research

I work at the interface between biological, mathematical, and social sciences. The general area of interest is human history and evolution. Currently, I focus on two specific projects within this broad area.

Although we have recently made great strides in understanding how human sociality evolved in the context of small groups integrated by face-to-face interactions, we still lack understanding of how humans became an ultrasocial species. We are unique in our ability to cooperate in huge groups (millions and more members) of genetically unrelated individuals. I believe this puzzle can be solved by applying the theory of multilevel selection. Briefly, human societies grew in size by making repeated transitions from lower-level groups to higher-level meta-groups (that is, groups of groups). Critical factors enabling such transitions were the selective force imposed by warfare and processes maintaing cultural variation between groups (and meta-groups).

The second project investigates the mechanisms of long-term oscillations in population sizes of historical societies. It turns out that population dynamics are linked with cycles of internal warfare, as well as disease waves (including such pandemics as the Black Death). I am currently attempting to understand how these variables dynamically interact with each other, and how the system is affected by such exogenous factors as climate fluctuations.

More details are on my Cliodynamics web page

Publications

Books:

Turchin P, Nefedov SA. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton University Press.

Turchin P. 2006. War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations. Pi Press. See it at Amazon.com

Turchin, P. 2003. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton University Press. See it at Princeton University Press

Turchin, P. 2003. Complex Population Dynamics: a Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis. Princeton University Press. Additional stuff (known typos, NLTSM software) here.

Turchin, P. 1998. Quantitative Analysis of Movement: measuring and modeling population redistribution in plants and animals. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.

Courses taught: General Eclogy
Theoretical Ecology
Population Ecology
Biological Statistics

 


Graduate Students: Jay Bancroft (Ph.D. 1999)
Eric Schauber (Ph.D. 2000)
Kristian Omland (Ph.D. 2001)
Juan Manuel Morales (Ph.D. 2004)

Selected Journal Articles:

Turchin P, Scheidel W. 2009. Coin Hoards Speak of Population Declines in Ancient Rome. PNAS, in press.

Turchin, P. 2009. Long-term population cycles in human societies. Pages 1-17 in R. S. Ostfeld and W. H. Schlesinger, editors. The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology, 2009 . Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1162.

Turchin P. 2008. Arise ‘cliodynamics'. Nature 454:34-35.

Burtsev M, Turchin P. 2006. Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles. Nature 440: 1041-4. .

Turchin P. 2003. Evolution in population dynamics. Nature 424: 257-258.

Turchin, P. 2001. Does population ecology have general laws? Oikos 94:17-26.

Turchin, P., Oksanen, L., Ekerholm, P., Oksanen, T., Henttonen, H. 2000. Are lemmings prey or predators? Nature 405: 562-565.

Turchin, P., Ellner, S.P. 2000. Living on the edge of chaos: population dynamics of Fennoscandian voles. Ecology 81: 3099-3116.

Turchin, P., Taylor A.D., Reeve J.D. 1999. Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test. Science 285: 1068-1071.

Turchin, P., Hanski, I. 1997. An empirically-based model for the latitudinal gradient in vole population dynamics. American Naturalist 149:842-874.

Hanski, I., Turchin P., Korpimäki, E., and Henttonen, H. 1993. Population oscillations of boreal rodents: regulation by mustelid predators leads to chaos. Nature 364:232-235.

Turchin, P. 1990. Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags? Nature 344:660-663.